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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More On True Models And Predictive Inference

Not all models are false. So much we have discussed before. To say a model is false is to show that one of the premises which comprise the model is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)

Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
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Posted inStatistics

Coal-Fired Power Plants Fuel Suicide—Or Maybe Sanguinity

Smokestack Seppuku Whatever you do, don't look at that smokestack! Do, and next thing you know you'll be drawing a knife across your throat. Suicide! Or so says the press…
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Posted inStatistics

Belief In God Associated With Psychiatric Symptoms

Medicalizing Belief Would you say that a guy who claims he believes in a "just" God suffers from "psychiatric symptoms"? What if we swap "just" for "critical." Do we have…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

Physical Anthropology: Peter Kreeft’s Summa Philosophica Part V

Read Part IV. Remember, we're doing summaries of summaries here; only bare sketches are possible. Buy his book for more detail. Question V is Physical Anthropology. The most contentious question…
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Posted inStatistics

Scientists Claim Brain Scans Can ID Pre-Criminals

"I'm sorry, sir. We cannot recommend Mr Jones be granted parole," said the man in the impressive white coat, on which was embroidered his name and the awe-inspiring initials "MD".…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Regnerus Controversy: Children In Traditional Families Do Better Than Those Raised In Non-Traditional Settings

Originally published 24 July 2012. No changes have been made, though I'm sorely tempted to comment on the weeds descending from Regnerus's chin. Doubtless the nastiest phenomenon in nature is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Correlation And Coincidence

A hastily written entry today, folks. Busy day. Typos at no extra charge. Reader Al Perrella invites us to Jerry Pournelle's Chaos Manner, where a note from our friend Mike…
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  1. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  2. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  3. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

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    I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…

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