Almost all lines drawn across time series to indicate trends are fake, frauds, misleading, or are improper ascriptions of cause. Video https://youtu.be/svlzQb_EsDs Links: YouTube * Twitter – X * Rumble * Bitchute * Class Page * Jaynes Book * Uncertainty HOMEWORK: Find your own…

Cracker Barrel infamously tried changing their homey friendly warm and folksy logo to a stripped down dull almost monotone cool version. To remain "current". They also, reports say, redid the…

The signal+noise notion of time series is usually wrong. Most time series are pure signal, no noise. And since they are accidental series, models of them are correlational not causal.…

My Dearest Supporters, Loyal Readers & Despised Enemies, The Lord seeing fit to leave me to roam free another annum, I once again bid you the happiest of New Years.…

No Class today, or until January 8. So as not to leave you bereft and mournful before the blessed 25th, and to satisfy your epistemological hungerings, here is some homework,…

Due to the length of tomorrow's and today's post, there will be no post Wednesday. Video at bottom. Word is out (I learned via, naturally, Steve Sailer) about a new…

Thanks to whoever sent the Dice (there was no note or name attached). They work! Some are recognizing testing is flawed, but they seek refuge in "effect sizes", which is…

Do not conduct or trust any regression, or any probability model, before you understand what "control" means and does NOT mean. NO CLASS NEXT WEEK. Video https://youtu.be/_ON42EEGrb4 Links: YouTube *…