Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don't expect all want to read these posts. So please don't feel like you must. Yet, I…

The signal+noise notion of time series is usually wrong. Most time series are pure signal, no noise. And since they are accidental series, models of them are correlational not causal.…

The following conversation from an alleged Class follower (CF) and an academic statistician (AS) may or may not have taken place. Whichever, it comes at a perfect time for our…

I stole most of the headline from The Times, which ran a subtler version: "Laws banning FGM are harmful and ‘stigmatising’, say academics". The practice of slicing off a women's…

On Monday, 5 January, we'll register new predictions. Don't put them here. I bring glad prognosticative tidings and am pleased to report we did slightly better this year than last.…

Dartmouth President Sian Leah Beilock reacted to the Trump Administration's Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education by saying the university would accept no new grant money, that professors would…

Time (sigh) for yet another example of the scrofulous, not to say ubiquitous, Epidemiologist Fallacy. This is peer-reviewed-paper generating technique of declaring X CAUSES Y, but where X is never…

The scheduler has been busted, and is not sending emails out on time. I only just now noticed this post. My apologies. Cover your ears, ladies. I'm about to let…