Posted inStatistics
Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Posted inStatistics
Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Posted inStatistics
Class 79: Time Series Example
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Posted inStatistics
Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series
Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don't expect all want to read these posts. So please don't feel like you must. Yet, I…
Posted inStatistics
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
The signal+noise notion of time series is usually wrong. Most time series are pure signal, no noise. And since they are accidental series, models of them are correlational not causal.…
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Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
The following conversation from an alleged Class follower (CF) and an academic statistician (AS) may or may not have taken place. Whichever, it comes at a perfect time for our…
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On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
I stole most of the headline from The Times, which ran a subtler version: "Laws banning FGM are harmful and ‘stigmatising’, say academics". The practice of slicing off a women's…
Posted inStatistics
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
On Monday, 5 January, we'll register new predictions. Don't put them here. I bring glad prognosticative tidings and am pleased to report we did slightly better this year than last.…