Posted inFun Statistics
Masters Statistics & (Some) Predictions
Here's a view of the winning scores from par since the inception of the tournament. The early years saw little variability, but since the 60s there were a lot more…
Posted inStatistics
Natural Variations In Weather DO NOT Explain The ‘Pause’: Update, With Letter to Nature
You create a model which predicts the sun will rise in the west. The sun fails to cooperate and rises in the east. Do you: Admit failure and return your…
Posted inStatistics
NEW PAPER: Why Models Run Hot: Results From An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Here's our press release. See also the Daily Mail. WHAT WENT WRONG? A major…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed
People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To
We're finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article "Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series." Let's return to the Screaming Willies.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The True Meaning Of Statistical Models
This came up yesterday (again, as it does often), so I figure one more stab is in order. Because the answer isn't simple, I had to write a lot, which…
Posted inStatistics
The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models
Several readers asked me to look at Ross McKitrick's paper "HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series", which is receiving the usual…
Posted inStatistics
We Know The Climate Is Warming Because It Isn’t
What do you call the mental process which allows a man to say "What's firmly established is that the climate is warming" while also holding that "There's been a burst…