Take a look-see at this science pic: This is the output from some model, the nature of which is not especially interesting, and the accompanying observations. In other words, predictions and the […]
More On Why Falsifiability Is Not Interesting
Falsifiability Is Falsifiable
We’ve talked many times before, and at greater length in Uncertanity, about the concept of falsifiability. It has come up again lately. The term shouldn’t be but is equivocal. I mean it […]
Falsifiability Is Not That Useful
False is not True We spoke earlier of falsification and why I didn’t think it was an especially useful criterion. My tweets about it inspired Deborah Mayo, who advocates for the new […]
Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X
Review! Last time we created four models of CGPA. Which is correct? They all are. Why? I should ask as a homework question, but I’ll remind us here. Since all probability is […]
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we’re 1.5 years out, it’s time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again tomorrow! Chapter […]
The Difference Between Essential And Empirical Models
I was having a back-and-forth with a colleague on modeling types (see this post for a modeling hierarchy) and falsifiability. It’s crucial we distinguish essential and empirical models, but first a word […]
A Deep Philosophical Account Of Probability
Another review of Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics, this one taken from an Amazon customer. It was 7 or 8 years ago when I was sitting in my office […]
Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause
Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here’s a direct link. Here’s the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were curious, George Gilder […]
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