One of our main themes is Uncertainty. In short, there is not enough of it, especially in Science. Which is to say, there is a surfeit of certainty. We drown in false […]
Making Up Data To Prove Models?
There is this idea in statistics called the “bootstrap.” The idea is not crazy, but it’s not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized probability (PP) […]
Mask Forever, Says Experts’ Model, It Saves Lives!
Here’s a question for you, brought to you by propagandists: “Could permanent masks in public become Vic policy?” And here’s the headline: “Could wearing masks in public be the answer to Victoria’s […]
Refereeing Models Which Ask Us To “Follow The Science!”
I’m stealing this from Spectator, which has done science right. It shows the UK’s SAGE Expert models for covid. In each case, the gray and others colors are the model predictions, and […]
Reader Experiences With Bad Medical & Finance Models
Anons emails about experience with bad modeling. These read very like posts you see here daily. Lightly edited to remove personal information, with links by me. The post about the Lancet pollution […]
There Is No Difference Between A Proposal, Hypothesis, Model, Theory or Law
Ready for some Logic 101? Something real easy, I promise. We’ll use it in service to show why falsificationism is not that interesting, or useful, and we’ll need it in judging how […]
“Why Didn’t Use You The [fill in the blank] Model On That NZ Data, Briggs?”
“Hey, Briggs. I saw your take on the leaked New Zealand vaccine data. Interesting. But why didn’t you use [Insert My Favorite Statistics Model Here]?” [Blog, Substack mirror.] I’ll tell you why […]
Coronadoom Update: Why Are Masks & Models Believed?
Many off this week, out on their last grand chance to cling to summer. As is proper. So you might have missed a few juicy coroandoom items. Incidentally, we’ll tackle “excess deaths” […]
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