Posted inStatistics
The Verdict
I know I said no posts Friday, unless events. This was an event. I figured maybe folks wanted to discuss the matter. Here are my guesses. I hold them with…
Posted inStatistics
Why The Polls Are Wrong: Updates
This was originally written for a normie audience. See updates below. Polls Predict Biden On the evening of October 29th, The Economist updated their poll-based election forecast model. It gave…
Posted inStatistics
Professor’s Long-Accurate Presidential Election Model Picks Biden. How Do We Judge This Model?
How impressive does this headline sound: "Forecaster who's predicted every presidential winner correctly for 40 YEARS reveals who he thinks will win 2024 election"? We'll use this to look at…
Posted inFun Statistics
Aella Girl’s Curious Spinning Circle Results: Why Do The Probabilities Match The Bets?
Listen to the podcast on YouTube, Bitchute, Gab. Something fun on a lazy day. I was asked to comment on this tweet: https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1594144435000213505 Before we get to it, and if…
Posted inStatistics
Researchers Who Accept Regime Funding Should Disclose Their Conflict Of Interest
Shocking report in science money news came out last week. Seems "Six fossil fuel companies funneled more than $700m in research funding to 27 universities in the US from 2010…
Posted inStatistics
Panel Of Scientists To Vote On Official Disinformation, Official Truths
One of the things you're sick of reading, and I'm tired of writing, is that if there is such a thing as Official Disinformation, there must necessarily be Official Truth,…
Posted inStatistics
The Non-Wisdom Of Crowds And Voting
This post first appeared in modified form on 29 Januarty 2014. It also appears (also modified) in Chapter 4 of Everything You Believe Is Wrong. Have you heard of Mesd-su-Re?…
Posted inStatistics
Crime Issue Reveals the Real Source of Nation’s Political Divide — Guest Post by ST Karnick
Karnik is more in touch with "normies" than the author of this blog/Substack, and I thought it would be interesting to bring us that perspective. For instance, I look with…
