Posted inStatistics
Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell
I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…
Posted inStatistics
Don’t Say “Hiatus.”
Don't say "pause", either. Update: Nor (see this post) "natural variability". What a mistake it is to use these words! There is no possible meaning of them which is sensible…
Posted inBook review Statistics
The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed
People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
Posted inStatistics
The IPCC’s And McKitrick’s “Hiatus” Time Series Models
Several readers asked me to look at Ross McKitrick's paper "HAC-Robust Measurement of the Duration of a Trendless Subsample in a Global Climate Time Series", which is receiving the usual…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Reporting On So-Called Climate Reporters: Update 4
Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. The first section of this article contains background on the subject which should be read, the second…
Posted inStatistics
How’d We Do On Our 2014 Predictions?
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Time to tally. As has become our tradition, each New Year's Eve we see…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…
Posted inStatistics
Don’t Say “Natural Variability”
Word that the climate of doom we were promised (repeatedly) has not obtained has begun leaking out. Climatologists have known this for quite some time, but now even environmental activists…
