Philosophy – Page 105 – William M. Briggs

“Freedom Includes Total Diversity”

Here's the setup. That wise man Barack Obama nominated James "Wally" Brewster Jr. as Ambassador to the Dominican Republic. Brewster is a well known "bundler" to the administration, adept at…

Culture Philosophy

Government Became Unstoppable Yesterday

Regardless whether you cheered or wept at yesterday's DOMA ruling, you will have done nothing but affirmed your own uninformed prejudices if you do not read the opinions of the…

Philosophy Statistics

Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Brian (bulaoren) on How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?December 31, 2025
Most of those predictions are pretty bleak. I fear that pessimism evolves into cynicism when we feel we have a…
shawn marshall on How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?December 31, 2025
I think I would have won if the Europeans had not prevented Trump from ending the Ukraine war and announcing…
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions? – William M. Briggs on Register Your Predictions For 2025!December 31, 2025
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Tars Tarkas on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 30, 2025
"The Drake and Fermi are not flawed logically: one can put probabilities to any question." The Drake equation always struck…
NLR on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 30, 2025
There may or may not be extraterrestrial life, but if we ever see some, I suspect there will be surprises.…