Evidence for an event cannot be the horrific consequences of that event. Suppose we're interested in the probability of a Y = "Horrific plague". Since nothing has a probability, we…

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…

Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…

Pew has a large survey out with the title "In a Politically Polarized Era, Sharp Divides in Both Partisan Coalitions: Partisanship remains biggest factor in public's political values." I have…

Paper link. By moi. Abstract: There is no reason to use traditional hypothesis testing. If one's goal is to assess past performance of a model, then a simple measure or…

From reader Kip Hansen comes a long but good (and slightly edited) question on sea level data. I can only answer part of it, because I have no expertise in…