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Latest Articles
Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI
February 9, 2026
Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well
February 4, 2026
Impossible LSAT Statistics Question
February 3, 2026
How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)
February 2, 2026
Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series
January 29, 2026
Who Still Listens To AM Radio?
January 28, 2026
Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins
January 27, 2026
What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory
January 26, 2026
What A Winter
January 20, 2026
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
January 19, 2026
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
January 15, 2026
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
January 14, 2026
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
January 13, 2026
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
January 12, 2026
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
January 8, 2026
The Consent Fallacy
January 7, 2026
On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
January 6, 2026
Register Your Predictions For 2026!
January 5, 2026
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2026
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
December 31, 2025
Why The Drake Equation Fails
December 30, 2025
Posted inStatistics

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Posted by By Briggs February 9, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Posted by By Briggs February 4, 2026
Continue Reading
The Key Role Of Probability & Chance In Science
Posted inStatistics

The Key Role Of Probability & Chance In Science

I received thoughtful questions from EB about my views of probability and how they fit with science. This is long, but the questions alone make it worth reading. The end…
Read More
On The Cult Of The Victim & Why We Must Reject It
Posted inStatistics

On The Cult Of The Victim & Why We Must Reject It

I am not enough of a historian to say whether the Cult of the Victim forms in every dying civilization, but it sure has in ours. A Victim group is…
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Class 61: Does This Guy Have ESP? II
Posted inStatistics

Class 61: Does This Guy Have ESP? II

Hypothesis testing has told us what probably isn't true. It can't see all evidence. Here's how to do it right. Video https://youtu.be/5yoRSQMWle4 Links: YouTube * Twitter - X * Rumble…
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Funding Increases To Foster Even More Cheating In Science
Posted inStatistics

Funding Increases To Foster Even More Cheating In Science

I don't often discuss cheating in science, because the conclusion "It's bad, don't do it" doesn't need explication. Even those cheating are clever enough to swear to the conclusion's truth.…
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Compulsory Moral Bioenhancement Should Be Covert Says Academic Who Says Ticks Should Be Genetically Modified To Stop You Eating Meat
Posted inStatistics

Compulsory Moral Bioenhancement Should Be Covert Says Academic Who Says Ticks Should Be Genetically Modified To Stop You Eating Meat

My heart soared like a hawk by the hundreds of supportive comments I got on Twitter from last week's story about two academics who want government to genetically modify ticks…
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Lying Increases Trust In Science, Says Academic
Posted inStatistics

Lying Increases Trust In Science, Says Academic

The title today is identical to the peer-reviewed paper of the same name in Theory and Society by BVE Hyde. Hyde begins: "This study begins by outlining the transparency paradox:…
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Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1
Posted inStatistics

Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1

A guy correctly "sees" 4 cards out of 52. A wee P hypothesis test says he has psychic powers. Does he? We only begin this difficult question today. Video https://youtu.be/_mgOCfEkIWQ…
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Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The Science
Posted inStatistics

Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The Science

What do you make of this headline? "Female pilots perform better under pressure, study finds". Story opens thusly: Female pilots may outperform their male counterparts in high-pressure flight situations, according…
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  1. C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie

  2. shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…

  4. Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    hudbwu, You could be right.

  5. hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026

    Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

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