I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]

I use the word “random” in the sense that you did not know what topics I would select today. And I use the word know in its logical sense. On Polling From […]

We’re probably getting tired of this topic (I am), but many people requested that we look at the same data but take into account the influence of Congress. This is the same […]