This subject comes up so often and in so many places, and so many people ask me about it, that I thought a short explanation would be appropriate. You may also search […]

I often say—it is even the main theme of this blog—that people are too certain. This is especially true when people report results from classical statistics, or use classical methods when implementing […]

Parts of this analysis were suggested by Allan MacRae, who kindly offered comments on the exposition of this article which greatly improved its readability. The article is incomplete, but I wanted to […]

I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]

I use the word “random” in the sense that you did not know what topics I would select today. And I use the word know in its logical sense. On Polling From […]

We’re probably getting tired of this topic (I am), but many people requested that we look at the same data but take into account the influence of Congress. This is the same […]

“J’accuse! A statistician may prove anything with his nefarious methods. He may even say a negative number is positive! You cannot trust anything he says.” Sigh. Unfortunately, this oft-hurled charge is all […]