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William M. Briggs

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Posted inFun Statistics

Are The Masters Winners Getting Younger And Better? Predictions Update

Update As of this writing, the 2012 Masters is halfway through, so it's a good time to re-examine the predictions made last April for this year's tournament. Scores have been…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

Reasoning To Belief: Feser’s The Last Superstition: A Refutation of the New Atheism — Part IV

Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part Interlude, Part IV, Part V, Part VI. Part Last. It's God All The Way Down Talk about causality without foreshadowing a tie…
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Posted inStatistics

Hurricanes have not increased: misuse of running means

Most statistics purporting to show that there has been an increase in hurricanes do not use the best statistical methods. I want to highlight one particular method that is often…
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Posted inPhilosophy

What can we learn about global warming from poor reporting?

From today's Syndney Morning Herald comes the headline: "Global warming to impact health". First, by impact the reporter almost certainly means influence, a more accurate, but far less energetic and…
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Posted inStatistics

How to look at the RSS satellite-derived temperature data

It's already well known that the Remote Sensing Systems satellite-derived temperature data has released the January figures: the finding is that it's colder this January than it has been for…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Statistics’ dirtiest secret

The old saying that "You can prove anything using statistics" isn't true. It is a lie, and a damned lie, at that. It is an ugly, vicious, scurrilous distortion, undoubtedly…
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Posted inStatistics

Do not calculate correlations after smoothing data

This subject comes up so often and in so many places, and so many people ask me about it, that I thought a short explanation would be appropriate. You may…
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  1. Briggs on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 17, 2025

    Scott, One of my hobbies is mentalism, mental magic---I even performed a trick on a Vegas stage! I have lots…

  2. James on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 16, 2025

    The Aquatic Ape Hypothesis might be worthy of exploring for bad science: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquatic_ape_hypothesis

  3. Scott Locklin on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 16, 2025

    There was a book on the correspondence between Jung and Wolfgang Pauli (who was a genius, but also an alcoholic…

  4. Ralph Mertesdorf on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    I found another headline at that "Study Finds" site" "Many Texas Communities Are Dangerously Unprepared For Floods, And Lack Of…

  5. Tars Tarkas on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    "39. She always wants to be the one who makes the decisions. She likes to be the leader." This is…

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