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Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models
Posted inStatistics

Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models

First basics of models and the Deadly Sin. Also the superiority of relevance over the misleading idea of independence. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…
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Professor’s Long-Accurate Presidential Election Model Picks Biden. How Do We Judge This Model?
Posted inStatistics

Professor’s Long-Accurate Presidential Election Model Picks Biden. How Do We Judge This Model?

How impressive does this headline sound: "Forecaster who's predicted every presidential winner correctly for 40 YEARS reveals who he thinks will win 2024 election"? We'll use this to look at…
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Researchers Tell Models To Say People Will Die Without Your Money
Posted inStatistics

Researchers Tell Models To Say People Will Die Without Your Money

Here is how the political magazine Nature opened its article "25 million deaths: what could happen if the US ends global health funding: Models estimate the ginormous potential impact of…
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Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work
Posted inStatistics

Science Model Told To Say Masks Work Discovers Masks Work

Ladies and gentlemen---and you, too, Hagfish---I present to you Science! In the form of the picture that heads today's post. This delightful children's drawing, presumably winning the Special Needs Science…
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Bad Predictions Mean Bad Models, Even If You’re A Distinguished Expert
Posted inStatistics

Bad Predictions Mean Bad Models, Even If You’re A Distinguished Expert

Suppose you're an Expert, or even an ordinary person, and you say, "If the world is like X, then Y will happen". Or you say or imply, "If the world…
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Making Up Data To Prove Models?
Posted inStatistics

Making Up Data To Prove Models?

There is this idea in statistics called the "bootstrap." The idea is not crazy, but it's not quite right either. Works like this: data comes in, and usually some parameterized…
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How Tim Walz Did Not Know Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say
Posted inStatistics

How Tim Walz Did Not Know Models Only Say What They’re Told To Say

I have loathed Tim Walz since the covid panic. He embraced hersterical models, and used the excuse they were The Science to grab power. Briefly, in May 2020, as you'll…
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Refereeing Models Which Ask Us To “Follow The Science!”
Posted inStatistics

Refereeing Models Which Ask Us To “Follow The Science!”

I'm stealing this from Spectator, which has done science right. It shows the UK's SAGE Expert models for covid. In each case, the gray and others colors are the model…
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  1. Briggs on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 17, 2025

    Scott, One of my hobbies is mentalism, mental magic---I even performed a trick on a Vegas stage! I have lots…

  2. James on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 16, 2025

    The Aquatic Ape Hypothesis might be worthy of exploring for bad science: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquatic_ape_hypothesis

  3. Scott Locklin on Jung’s Synchronicity & CoincidenceJuly 16, 2025

    There was a book on the correspondence between Jung and Wolfgang Pauli (who was a genius, but also an alcoholic…

  4. Ralph Mertesdorf on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    I found another headline at that "Study Finds" site" "Many Texas Communities Are Dangerously Unprepared For Floods, And Lack Of…

  5. Tars Tarkas on Vegetarians Crave Power And Success More Than Meat Eaters Do, Study FindsJuly 16, 2025

    "39. She always wants to be the one who makes the decisions. She likes to be the leader." This is…

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