The best model is no model! Display your data instead. We bring cause to models, we do not extract cause from models. Models do not say what happened: what happened…

This week starts Part II of the Class: scientific modeling, in all its glories and, alas, failures. Science is model happy, and judges too often the goodess of models by…

For any observed data an infinite number of models will fit it perfectly. How do you choose between them? Illustrated with an IQ test logic puzzle. Video https://videopress.com/v/zaDcFlBz?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube…

The word to determine is ambiguous. It can mean ascertain or cause. The latter implies the former, but not vice versa. Knowing the full cause of things is our goal;…

We want Pr(Y|X) where Y is a question about the world and X all/everything/in toto of what we assume is probative. That's not what we get usually. But we should!…

This is only a sketch of what's to come. In essence, today we begin the Class anew. Everything is about to get much harder, or much easier, depending on your…

I was on the Rare Candy podcast earlier this week. Fun discussion of the over-seriousness of science, the over-reliance on models, and much more. They tell me that they have…

One of our main themes is Uncertainty. In short, there is not enough of it, especially in Science. Which is to say, there is a surfeit of certainty. We drown…