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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Bad Ways Of Speaking About Truth

Easy It is true that all men are mortal. It is also true that 2 + 3 = 5. Yet it is not "true" that all men are mortal, nor…
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Posted inStatistics

Regression To The Mean (And Performance Curses) Simply Explained

I've just read about The Second Term Curse which supposedly besets (of course) second-term presidents. There is also the infamous Sports Illustrated Curse, which is said to befall athletes soon…
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Posted inStatistics

Sam Harris Asks, “Can Science Answer Moral Questions?” No, Sam, It Cannot

I was having a back-and-forth on Twitter with Craig Mazin ‏(@clmazin) about Sam Harris's claim that morality is a scientific and not a metaphysical question. As evidence, Mazin pointed me…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Horrors And Hurt Feelings Of Profiling

"Ver are your papers!" "Um. Hang on. I'm sure I have them on me. Wait. Here," said the man, handing them over. The clerk examined them closely. He arched his…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Life Isn’t Fair: Part III

We are at the position where somebody thinks a rule, law, or stricture, or the lack of the same, is fair or unfair. The justification for this belief must (eventually)…
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Posted inStatistics

Supreme Court And Proposition 8: A Few Thoughts

One of the more curious tidbits to arise out of yesterday's oral arguments (pdf) over California's Prop 8 was that that state's constitution has been amended some 500 times. Those…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Regnerus Controversy: Children In Traditional Families Do Better Than Those Raised In Non-Traditional Settings

Originally published 24 July 2012. No changes have been made, though I'm sorely tempted to comment on the weeds descending from Regnerus's chin. Doubtless the nastiest phenomenon in nature is…
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Posted inStatistics

A New Row Over Pregnancy Caused by Rape

Today's post is at Crisis Magazine. Why are the following questions political? How often do raped women become pregnant because of the rape? How often do (non-raped) women become pregnant…
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  1. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Is there evidence that people believe probabilities, parameters, or mathematical objects exist physically in nature? The fact that mathematicians use…

  3. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Relevance is made more difficult when Y is allowed to vary, but the underlying idea is the same. Probability offers…

  4. Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025

    What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…

  5. Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025

    I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…

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