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Latest Articles
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Posted by By Briggs April 27, 2026
Continue Reading
Coronavirus Update III: Secondary Peak and Freak——ing Out
Posted inClass Statistics

Coronavirus Update III: Secondary Peak and Freak——ing Out

All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations in linked in Update II, so go there first if you haven't seen it yet. Signs & Symptoms Skip to the next section…
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Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!
Posted inClass Statistics

Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…
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Summary Against Modern Thought: Worship Belongs To God Alone
Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Worship Belongs To God Alone

Previous post. A good reminder "cult" has changed in meaning over time. Latria = highest kind of worship. Why we worship God is in #5 below. THAT THE CULT PROPER…
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The Week In Doom — Spitting Out The Window Edition
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom — Spitting Out The Window Edition

Item Let's Call It Trumpvirus: If you're feeling awful, you know who to blame (New York Times op ed) Yeah, when you think of Mike Pence you maybe don't think…
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Janissaries, The LGBT Army & The End Of Empire — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inCulture

Janissaries, The LGBT Army & The End Of Empire — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Mentita est iniquita sibi... Iniquity, as always, lies to itself. And then to everyone else. Eastern Orthodoxy is no exception. Because it is a deception, masquerading as a belief. As…
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Case Study In Why Conservatism Will Continue To Fail
Posted inCulture

Case Study In Why Conservatism Will Continue To Fail

Conservatism, as we have long discussed, is dead. Though perhaps it doesn't seem that way, because its corpse is seen ambling about with a caring look on its decomposing face.…
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Naming Your Pronouns In Business: Reader Help Requested
Posted inCulture

Naming Your Pronouns In Business: Reader Help Requested

Rod Dreher (I know, I know) had an article in which he explains his forbidden love with Moldbug, concluding "A couple of things he said made me realize that his…
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Coronavirus Update II, Stats & Predictions
Posted inStatistics

Coronavirus Update II, Stats & Predictions

The code to do the plots yourself is here, a post which should be read for all the caveats, explanations, and so on. The original coronavirus post is here, which…
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  1. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  2. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  3. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  4. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  5. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

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