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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets
July 23, 2024
Class 14: No “UNfair” Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!
July 22, 2024
Covid Is The Boogerman of Maladies: Now It Causes Cognitive Confusion Claim Researchers
July 18, 2024
The Enlightenment Was The Beginning Of The Great Leveling: Stove 2
July 17, 2024
Lesson 13: No “Fair” Dice & Jaynes Symmetry
July 16, 2024
Arrest All Stochastic Terrorists In Trump Assassination Attempt & Civilian Murder & Shootings
July 15, 2024
Academics Have Contest To See How Many Times They Can Say ‘Racist’ In An Article: An IQ Story
July 11, 2024
Jon Stewart Proves Democracies Are Undesirable
July 10, 2024
There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1
July 9, 2024
How Did Such A Smart Guy Get So Stupid: Bill Gates & Cow Farts 
July 8, 2024
Testing The Blog Emailer: Please Delete
July 6, 2024
Top Ten Fireworks Tips from the Cult of Safety First!
July 4, 2024
My Origin Story – And More! In Which I’m Interviewed
July 3, 2024
Experts’ Tears Flow
July 2, 2024
Class 12: Psychic Card Guessing & The Proportional Syllogism
July 1, 2024
The Debate: A Key Moment In The History Of Comedy. Plus Predictions
June 28, 2024
Is This The Dumbest Science Ever?
June 27, 2024
Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs
June 26, 2024
The Probability Of Being Accused Of The Hate Crime Of Disparate Impact Approaches 1
June 25, 2024
Class 11: One Son Born Tuesday & Relevance. Update: Homework Added!
June 24, 2024
The Misinformation Dis(mis)course Revisited : The Losing Battle of The Academic Expertocracy — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp
June 20, 2024
Posted inStatistics

Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets

Posted by By Briggs July 23, 2024
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 14: No “UNfair” Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!

Posted by By Briggs July 22, 2024
Continue Reading
Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving
Posted inFun

Old Lodge Skins’ Prayer Of Thanksgiving

In what is now long tradition, we present for Thanksgiving the death prayer of Old Lodge Skins, which comes at the close of Little Big Man by Thomas Berger (who…
Read More
Humpty Dumpty Takes On The Sports Illustrated Curse — Guest Post by Jim Fedako
Posted inFun

Humpty Dumpty Takes On The Sports Illustrated Curse — Guest Post by Jim Fedako

We continue our Thanksgiving week of pleasant stories, today with a guest post by Jim Fedako. “When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it…
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What Makes A Casino Gamble Different Than Making A Decision Under Uncertainty?
Posted inPhilosophy

What Makes A Casino Gamble Different Than Making A Decision Under Uncertainty?

We continue with our week of pleasant Thanksgiving topics. A cop in the police procedural Hell Is A City (start around 54 minutes) discerned one of the bad guys he…
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The Statistics Of Stopping Power
Posted inStatistics

The Statistics Of Stopping Power

It is a slow week, and a week of Thanks, so let's spend our time with some fun things. Like a fascinating study by Greg Ellifritz on "An Alternate Look…
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Refereeing Models Which Ask Us To “Follow The Science!”
Posted inStatistics

Refereeing Models Which Ask Us To “Follow The Science!”

I'm stealing this from Spectator, which has done science right. It shows the UK's SAGE Expert models for covid. In each case, the gray and others colors are the model…
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How Our Dictator Arrives: Surfing On A Wave Of Paperwork — Review of the Forgotten ‘The Law of Longer Life’ by Parkinson & Le Compte
Posted inBook review Culture

How Our Dictator Arrives: Surfing On A Wave Of Paperwork — Review of the Forgotten ‘The Law of Longer Life’ by Parkinson & Le Compte

The list of authors who have theories on how civilizations end is not small: Ibn Kaldun, Spengler, Toynbee, Strauss and Howe, Turchin, Glubb all stress that civilizations have existed but…
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Sex With Dogs & Other Critters Back In Vogue, Thanks To Academic Peter Singer
Posted inCulture Philosophy

Sex With Dogs & Other Critters Back In Vogue, Thanks To Academic Peter Singer

Very long time readers will know that we warned that the creation of the notion of "sexual orientation", and the criminalizing of "discrimination" against "sexual orientations", logically implied that all…
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A Brief History Of The Palestine Grievance — Comments by the Late Glubb Pasha
Posted inCulture

A Brief History Of The Palestine Grievance — Comments by the Late Glubb Pasha

We begin with an excerpt from the short book The Middle East Crisis: A Personal Interpretation by Glubb Pasha, published late in 1967. If you have any interest in the…
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  1. gareth on Class 14: No “UNfair” Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!July 23, 2024

    16:43: "0!=1" - eh? n!=n*n-1... if n=0 then n!=0 Please explain or point to links that do :-) Comment: agree…

  2. NLR on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    The thing that gets me about these rationalists is that they seem to think it's still 1998. All the Internet…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    It was discussion of voting models that made it easy for me to believe your assertion that there are no…

  4. Paul Murphy on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    and the #1 reason to dislike prediction markets is... they can be used like push polls to manipulate opinion -…

  5. Plantagenet on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    Addendum I forgot to mention that since I placed my bet a couple months ago the odds are now on…

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