I am awarding a Briggs Internet Prize---the coveted BIP---for anybody who can demonstrate even one instance of a probability which is unconditional on any evidence whatsoever. The prize will not…

Bookmark this one, will you, folks? If there's one thing we get more questions about and that is more abused than regression, I don't know. So here is the world's…

Significance Magazine waded into the culture wars by publishing "Deciding abortions by the toss of a coin?" by somebody called Michael A. Lewis. Here (in case the article is pulled)…

Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…

Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…