Statistics – Page 257 – William M. Briggs

The Great Bayesian Switch

Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…

Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…

Statistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…

Book review Statistics

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

Pål Brekke as a new book about the orange orb of delight that hovers over us. Our Explosive Sun is a colorful introduction that would be good for newcomers or…

Statistics

I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer

Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…

McChuck on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
Everybody remembers the Nazi book burning. The Left won't shut up about it. Almost nobody talks about what books were…
NLR on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026
The main reason people believe in AGI is because they want to. People want a superintelligent machine that will solve…
Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions – William M. Briggs on Is Laverne Cox Still A Man? Or, The Coming Transgender WarsFebruary 10, 2026
[…] and infiltrating the public in earnest about a dozen or so years ago. (In 2014 I wrote, “Is Laverne…
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026
C-Marie, I knew you could.
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026
Andrew, No, they're just bad model predictions. See the "hallucination" article I referenced.