#### The Mysticism Of Randomness: Philosophy of Probability & Statistics Video Series

Nothing can be caused by "chance". Chance, like randomness, isn't a thing, it isn't real, it isn't physical, therefore it cannot cause anything. Randomness means "unknown." Therefore "random variables" are…

#### Frequentists Are Closet Bayesians: Confidence Interval Edition

Actually, all frequentists and Bayesians are logical probabilists, but if I put that in the title, few would believe it. A man might call himself an Anti-Gravitational Theorist, a science…

#### What Are The Chances Of That?

Go ahead and ask me. I'll even pretend to laugh. Just as I chuckle warmly with you when you quote Mark Twain (or Disraeli) abut damned lies. (Secretly, I'll be…

#### What That Spurious Correlation Website Tells Us About Statistics

Many (thanks!) readers sent links to Tyler Vigen's Spurious Correlations, whose motto is "Discover a new correlation - an interesting spurious correlation each day!" My favorite is tying the yearly…

#### Quantum Mechanics & Free Will: Guest Post by Bob Kurland

This post originally appeared in longer form at Bob's place. There's a lot of meat here; I recommend biting it off in small chunks. "Of course I believe in free…

#### Never Say “Caused By Chance”

One of the services of this blog is grammatical guidance. In that spirit, here are phrases which should be forbidden, and will be once I am in charge (all highlights…

#### Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

#### Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part II

Read Part I. What is the probability that "The Detroit Tigers win today's game" (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known…