William M. Briggs

Scott Adams’s Climate Science Challenge

Scott Adams's Climate Science Challenge is of interest---thanks to reader Francsois for bringing it to our attention---because of his name-brand recognition. Here is the gist: So today's challenge is to…

Culture Statistics

Some Statistics On What The Sexual Rebellion Wraught

I'm always complaining of statistics gone awry, but a constant diet of bad news can lead to bad things, like a desire to listen to NPR or to use PowerPoint.…

Culture

Russia As Salvation Of The West: Part II — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Read Part I. Let's get down to work. Let's back up a long way and see where the initial error was made in calculating the supposed real purpose of the…

Book review Statistics

Mathematical Association of America Reviews Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

William J. Satzer at the Mathematical Association of America reviewed Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. Here it is (ellipsis below original). This is a book about probability…

Fun

Merry Federally Recognized Holiday of 2016!

Culture

“Media Powerhouses Don’t Quite Get Religion.”

Some fellow named Dean Baquet, New York Times Executive Editor, was holding forth about the election on your tax-dollar-supported NPR (Slogan: You have to pay, but you have no say),…

Statistics

Stream: Who’s Better At Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls?

Stream: Who's Better At Playing Doctor, Boys Or Girls? The NBC News story "Female Doctors Outperform Male Doctors, According to Study" makes these bold claims. Patients treated by women are…

Statistics

Pascal’s Mugging Is Silly: Events Don’t “Have” Probabilities

Before we begin, see this similar article about a different mugging scenario, which demonstrated that all probability is conditional and that decision isn't probability. Here's the serious version of Pascal's…

Johnno on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I'm panicking about the people who believe enthusiastically in the capabilities of the AI that the other people are panicking…
Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…

William M. Briggs

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series