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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
The Advent Of Lousy Music
Posted inStatistics

The Advent Of Lousy Music

In anticipation that many will be out, or in but out, today, no Class. Instead a topical post which ran originally on 6 December 2017. It will keep on running…
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Russia’s New Paradigm — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
Posted inStatistics

Russia’s New Paradigm — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

When Thomas Kuhn released his famous book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions in 1962, it riled a lot of people. Mostly those who were wedded to the old way of…
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Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike
Posted inStatistics

Facing The Inevitable — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Greetings Doomsters. I am graciously grateful to Brother Briggs for allowing me this gesture to you and for you in this histrionically historical moment during Advent -- quite possibly the…
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Posted inStatistics

How To Read The Paper Claiming Semaglutide Reduces Cardiomyocyte Size and Cardiac Mass

There is a new Research Shows paper on whether drugs like Ozempic (semaglutide) lower cardiac muscle mass. It makes a good lesson in how to read statistical claims. The paper…
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Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I
Posted inStatistics

Class 30: Hypothesis Testing Stinks I

Today the math, which you don't strictly need if you can't calculate, behind how to think about Research Shows headlines and papers. This will be an invaluable exercise. You must…
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Mark Twain On The Dictatorship Of Health
Posted inStatistics

Mark Twain On The Dictatorship Of Health

This post is originally from 9 November 2012, twelve years ago. It warned of the coming health dictatorship and the zeal of Experts banning whatever displeased them. Whether it displeased you…
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The Impossibilities Of Quantum Computing
Posted inStatistics

The Impossibilities Of Quantum Computing

Since we'll soon be discussing cause in the Class, and nowhere is cause as difficult as it is in quantum mechanics, and because somebody recently reminded me of Scott Locklin's…
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What Science Can Say About Vaccines: And What It Can’t Say
Posted inStatistics

What Science Can Say About Vaccines: And What It Can’t Say

Interesting times for science are in store given the incoming administration. RFK, Jr. has been tasked to make America Healthy Again. He will fail where he encourages women to kill…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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