William M. Briggs

Researchers Discover Parents Label Animals By Binary Sex At Zoos

Today a paper which is the almost certain winner of the Third Annual WMBriggs.com Bad Science Award (First winner; Second winner). Discovered by reader Nate Winchester, we have the peer-reviewed…

Culture

Russia’s Rise: Part I — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

This is Part I of II parts. The second part will run next Tuesday. I have been asked why I think Russia has returned to the center stage in world…

Culture Statistics

Pope Says Using Paper & Plastic A Sin

If you're a Christian, what do you suppose is the most pressing problem in the world today? The rapid fading of Christianity in the West? The dramatic increase in, and…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Differences In Being and What Is In Intellectual Substances

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Back to…

Culture Philosophy

On Ethical Socialism — Guest Post by Oswald Spengler

This excerpt is drawn from the 1965 Oxford University Press abridged edition of The Decline of the West, pages 185-187. Let us, once more, review Socialism (independently if the economic…

Statistics

Stream: xkcd’s Global Warming Time Series Mistakes

Today's post is at the Stream: xkcd's Global Warming Time Series Mistakes. The popular web cartoon xkcd has provided a wonderful opportunity to plug my must-read (and too expensive) book…

Culture

Comments on The Flight 93 Election. Let’s Roll

From reader Dean Ericson and from many other sources, the required must-read "The Flight 93 Election" by Publius Decius Mus at the sober Claremont Review of Books. If you support…

Fun

Uncertainty and the World: An interview with W. M. Briggs at Ordeal of Consciousness

Our friend Dover Beach, perhaps after having taken a fall or because he stood too close to Hillary and caught her disease, considered it would be well to interview Yours…

C- Marie on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
I understood much of the logic of this. Thank you, Matt! God bless, C- Marie
shawn marshall on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
I asked Grok to assign probabilities to all the known facts about the Shroud of Turin and then calculate a…
Rudolph Harrier on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
It's an interesting thought experiment. However, we will never have a practical implementation of the test because it would be…
Briggs on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
hudbwu, You could be right.
hudbwu on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 9, 2026
Caution: it may be that intelligence can not be confirmed by any behavioral test. For example, free will can not…

William M. Briggs

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails