William M. Briggs

Stream: Will 2016 Be the Year We Approach The Great and Terrible Singularity?

Will super-intelligent computers soon spell our doom, or have futurists forgotten something fundamental? Hint: it's the latter. Go to the Stream to read the rest. The chilling news is that…

Fun Statistics

Predictions For 2016—Register Yours Today!

It's that time of year again. Time to put your reputation on the line and show us your pudding, if that is the metaphor I want. Even if it isn't,…

Fun Statistics

How’d We Do On Our 2015 Predictions?

The answer to the post title's question is: I'm not so sure. Because why? Because the predictions everybody registered were lost when I was hacked last January. Why was I…

Culture

Open Discussion: Universities Are Dead, But Still Haven’t Dropped

Today, an open discussion, with the promise of much more to come, on the astonishing amazing I-can't-believe-he-said-that article "Dear Parents: Everything You Need to Know About Your Son and Daughter's…

Philosophy

Under-determination, Quus, And Why It’s Cause That Counts (And With A Taste Of Grue)

Turns out Arthur C. Clarke was on to something (who told him?). See, scientists, via one of the NASA Rovers, found this device on Mars. It is roundish, the color…

Philosophy Statistics

Gettier Problems & Epistemic Luck Are Distractions And No Problem

Regular readers will recall I do not think so-called Gettier problems have any force in epistemology. The "problems" only crop up because people make two mistakes: forgetting the difference between…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: What Scientific Errors Tell Us Of God

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. We're still…

Culture

This Week In Doom: Reality Now Illegal

The good news is that Yours Truly's prognosticative skills are sharper than ever. Of course this is only a relative blip in happiness. The ultimate Good News we celebrated yesterday.…

hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025
I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…
NLR on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 11, 2025
It's not just that the effects of technology are complex, it's that there's no guarantee that the results will fit…
Cloudbuster on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025
"Anyway, murder is illegal, too, yet murder is still with us. So it shouldn’t be strange that forbidding scientists to…
Mike Wooly on Cosmic Radiation, Clouds, & Global WarmingJune 10, 2025
The IPCC report that anthropogenic warming is around 0.2 degrees C per decade. That's two hundredths of a degree C…
Chaeremon on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 10, 2025
IMHO the dot ai bubble, as direct follower of the dot com bubble, is trying to instantiate Gödel's incompleteness theorems,…

William M. Briggs

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food

What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?

Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance

The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic

Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease

Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models

Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?