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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders
June 3, 2026
How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?
June 1, 2026
Class 90: Simple (Optimal) Decisions
May 28, 2026
Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living Longer
May 27, 2026
Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You Wednesday
May 21, 2026
Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”
May 20, 2026
Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves
May 18, 2026
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Posted inStatistics

No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke Coders

Posted by By Briggs June 3, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

Posted by By Briggs June 1, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The I-Have-Big-Muscles Fallacy

Harvard graduate walks down the street where a 50-lb sack of cement blocks his way. He reaches down to shift it but discovers that despite all his might the bulk…
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Posted inCulture

Orlando Shooting — Open Thread

Today is the first day of class; I originally had another post scheduled, but since I thought readers would like to discuss recent events, and I haven't had time to…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Chance Is Not A Cause

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Be careful!…
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Posted inCulture

Melody May Be A Learned Response?

Received this email from reader Don Siegel: Greetings. Vis a vis how music is getting worse---I'm a prof at Syr. Univ (Earth Sciences) but also lately, a solo jazz guitarist…
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Posted inFun

Consider The Hand — Guest Post by the Blonde Blombshell

Editor's note As I prepare for class this weekend, I have some guest posts and reader's questions prepared for us. The poor hands of the modern person are becoming nothing…
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Posted inStatistics

Fermi’s Paradox & Gaian Bottlenecks

Democracy (the system) is enough to account for the seeming alien life-form which is Hillary and for whatever that thing is on Trump's head. But as queer as Democracy is…
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Posted inPodcast

Trust Me. I’m A Scientist — WMBriggs Podcast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dzAsvJpC10 Download MP3. You'll have to listen in. This is the busiest time of year for me, so I haven't the time to write out a transcript of the show.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Brief Explanation Of Occam’s Razor

We're interested in whether some proposition Y is true. One explanation, perhaps causal or deterministic, or even only probabilistic, is X. Thus, Pr(Y | X) is high or equals 1.…
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  1. C-Marie on No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke CodersJune 3, 2026

    Thank you, Matt! Poor, poor Pope Leo XIV and the synodal business .... praying every day for Leo, for full…

  2. Anonimos?aw on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerJune 3, 2026

    "By age 80, the men who made it are more robust and the women start slipping under faster." Well, since…

  3. jgh on Shocking Abortion Numbers: Death Distributions Show We’re Living LongerJune 3, 2026

    I do census data research, and something very striking is comparing age profiles. The age distribution in 1900 is more-or-less…

  4. jgh on How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?June 3, 2026

    Surely the only logical reasoning is: if he knew what he was doing, he should be executed as punishment. If…

  5. Stephen Frick on No Model Will Save Us: Pope Leo, the Miserostat, and AI’s Woke CodersJune 3, 2026

    Thank you. This has so many valuable observations.

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