William M. Briggs

Laplace infamously calculated the probability, given his evidence, the sun would rise in the east tomorrow at (something like) 0.9999995. Many objected, saying it's much higher. Who was right? Laplace!…

One of my Inside-The-Academic-Beast contacts told me recently that the new crop of professors hired at a major well known university were unimaginative, nice and, most damning of all, boring.…

I forgot to remind you of this week's What Are The Chances? video. A truck carrying 216,000 dice spilled onto the highway, and they said the total was exactly 756,000.…

A peer-reviewed scientific science study in JAMA said that "In a survey study of 10,000 US adults, 7% reported having been present on the scene where 4 or more people…

Unobservable parameters abound in probability models. Why? Where do they come from? Are they needed? This is our first hardcore math lesson. You must read the written lesson today. WARNING…

Once again "IQ". We continue our quest to disabuse ourselves of the notions that "IQ" is intelligence and that one-number of summaries of intelligence are adequate. Both these contentions will…

I know I wasn't going to inflict upon you more What Are The Chances...? videos, but this was so topical, and fit in so well with the Class, that I…

Bayes's theorem, while nice, is not necessary. What counts is the relation between sets of propositions; between our assumptions and what we want to know. Bayes can even slow you…