Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don’t need models to tell us […]
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I
How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update
Read Part I Part II What we’re after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there are no […]
Is Using FanDuel Or DraftKings Gambling? What Is A “Game Of Chance”?
Fantasies Heard about the legal troubles of FanDuel and DraftKings? These are fantasy sports companies that allow people to pick lineups (according to certain rules) for professional sporting matches and to win […]
Classic Posts
Classic Articles There is over twenty years worth of material on the blog on wide-ranging subjects. First stop is the category drop-down menu, to the right on large screens and at the […]
Mainstream Global Warming Reporters Are Biased, Unteachable, Lazy, & Unethical
The left-wing Washington Post, stepping up its advocacy, issued a set of words yesterday teaching the global warming controversy and ignoring science. Typical. The somehow aptly named E Wemple gave us “NPR […]
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory. I’ll give […]
The Hot Hand: Statistical Fluke Or Genuine Article?
I’ll save you hunting through the text. It’s a real thing. If you want to know why, read on. If not, you just tell ’em W.M. Briggs sez so, which is enough […]
Merry Christmas And Thanks For Another Year
Now we can’t say that the best of the best and the brightest of the brightest blog readers stop by here on a regular basis, because that would be immodest of us. […]
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