Search Results for “scoring”

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Class 94: Quantifying The Unquantifiable

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. Pease don’t feel like you must. Yet, I have…

Statistics

University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEing

Before we get to our story, my deep and profound thanks to readers for getting us higher in the ranks. I am most grateful. I logged on Saturday and saw…

Statistics

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

In proving foresight may be vain:The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ MenGang aft agley,An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,For promis’d joy! Lennie said, "I thought you was…

Statistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…

Statistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…

aGrimm on Book UpdateOctober 16, 2026
I'm looking forward to the book; warts and all the first was enlightening and fun to read.
John Pate on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026
I'm a big fan of LaTeX. I wrote a class package that made it into one or more of the…
Ursula on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026
i have your first edition which I read, pencil in hand foor the typos. Loved it anyway! Will be buying…
Brian (buaoren) on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026
Hello again, friend Briggs How colloquial is your French? Please allow me to be te first to wish you; Merde!
Cary Cotterman on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026
I just might buy a copy of the new edition, even though I already have the typo-ridden first one. I'll…