Search Results for “scoring”

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

How High an IQ Must A Person Have To Be Executed?

In proving foresight may be vain:The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ MenGang aft agley,An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain,For promis’d joy! Lennie said, "I thought you was…

Statistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…

Statistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…

Statistics

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…

Statistics

How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is Environment

Due to the length of tomorrow's and today's post, there will be no post Wednesday. Video at bottom. Word is out (I learned via, naturally, Steve Sailer) about a new…

CorkyAgain on The Equality ParadoxJuly 10, 2026
Somehow I'd missed that story about Schumer's grilling gaffe. Aside from not lighting the fire or putting cheese on a…
John Pate on The Equality ParadoxJuly 9, 2026
Maybe it wasn't considered safe for Schumer to be near an open flame, having no familiarity with the ordinary tasks…
Fubsy on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 9, 2026
Lol, I remember "Iron Eyes Cody," the spaghetti Indian!
Rudolph Harrier on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 9, 2026
I've also experienced that thing where it claims to not be able to do something it just did. I see…
Rudolph Harrier on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 9, 2026
A couple of things I have noticed about how LLMs have developed in the last year or so: 1.) Somehow…