William M. Briggs

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…

Culture Fun

Contest! Dumbest & Most Frustrating Modern Invention

Contest! Win a Coffee Cup to the Stars! What is the Dumbest & Most Frustrating Modern Invention? What is the work of man that has given the most annoyance or…

Statistics

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbf_TXqEY-Y Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here's a direct link. Here's the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Can Read Your Mind

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. ESP on…

Book review Philosophy

The Only Metric That Matters

I've been reading reviews of the the peevish Jerry Coyne's new book Faith Versus Fact (I don't have any money to give him to buy an actual copy). Recommended is…

Culture Philosophy

Legalized Suicide Leads To Government Deciding Who Lives, Who Dies. Update: Predictions Verified

If the government believes it has the power to grant you the right to die, then it will eventually believe it has the power to decide who lives and who…

Statistics

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…

Statistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…

Uncle Mike on Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)March 12, 2026
The probability of significant "climate change" in equatorial Africa is very small because most climate change occurs at the poles.…
C-Marie on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026
Well, I do knpw that Malchi Martin and David McCullough were great authors.... The Final Conclave and John Adams, respectively.…
NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026
People have a variety of different reading habits. So the best thing to accommodate that is to preserve a variety…
Johnno on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026
Briggs, have you tried ONE PIECE ?
Eyrie on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026
Yep, finding the same thing. Unfortunately many of the good authors have died. We lost Michael F Flynn a couple…

William M. Briggs

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AI

A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?

Class 81: The Second Biggest Error In Time Series

The Paper Test Shows Why AGI Is Not Possible: And Why The Brain Is Different In Kind

Researcher Imagines Weather With No Human Influence: Concludes Climate Change Hurts Incomes

Faith Deposited: Why Godless Science Fails

Class 80: Granger Causality; Per Se & Accidental Time Series; Stationarity

Scientists Seeking To Escape Criticism Run To The Warmth & Comfort Of Bluesky

The Loss of Ephemera — Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell

Class 79: Time Series Example

The Importance Of Not Making Decisions

Don’t Take The ‘Long-Covid’ Alzheimer’s Study Seriously

AI Is Driving Many Crazy: Our Latest Panic

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

Contest! Dumbest & Most Frustrating Modern Invention

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Can Read Your Mind

The Only Metric That Matters

Legalized Suicide Leads To Government Deciding Who Lives, Who Dies. Update: Predictions Verified

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification