William M. Briggs

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: That God Is One I

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Hotting up…

Culture

This Partly Explains Why Education Is Such A Mess

I am away from the computer today. Alternate title, A Few Moments With The Teacher's College (Columbia) Record. Many educators are told what to think at this institution before they…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Culture

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. So…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Uncle Mike on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025
The Climate Catastrophe paradigm is dead. RIP. The old adherents are howling at the moon, but Science has moved on.…
Cloudbuster on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025
"New York and Ohio, which are cool" Please explain to my sweat glands how Ohio is cool so I shouldn't…
Cary Cotterman on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025
There is a significant correlation between golf and the wearing of ugly pants.
Rudolph Harrier on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025
Yeah, the second I heard "Olmstead County" my mind went to the Mayo Clinic too. Both the Mayo Clinic proper…
Briggs on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025
Mike, Ha! Thanks for that.

William M. Briggs

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

The Unseen Bias In All Science

The Sad End Of Radio

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!

Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Summary Against Modern Thought: That God Is One I

This Partly Explains Why Education Is Such A Mess

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification