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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inCulture

The Week In Doom: Nervous Sheep & Intolerant Irish

https://twitter.com/LADFLEG/status/602012010470080512 Return of the snakes As of this writing, Ireland has voted 60%-ish to allow two men or two women---and only two at this point; arbitrary discrimination, no?---to pretend to…
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Posted inCulture

Gay-conversion Therapy Bans And The Origin Of Homosexual

When "gay" or "homosexual" meant somebody who predominately engaged in same-sex activities, the words had some use, but with an inherent and real danger that people, via this language, would…
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Posted inCulture

Ireland’s Same-Sex Gmarriage Vote: Or, The Snakes Return?

Update See Saturday's post for results. Dublin Archbishop Diarmuid Martin has "no wish to stuff [his] religious views down other people's throats"---is that done with a shillelagh?---and so he won't…
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Posted inStatistics

Are Wars And Violence Decreasing? Taleb’s New Paper Reviewed

The vale of tears I've been asked by several people to comment on Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb's paper (thankfully, not peer-reviewed, unless you count this) "On the tail…
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Posted inCulture

Democracy And The Global Warming Consensus—And That New Arizona Survey

Guy named Jonathan Overpeck who makes a living ensuring people are nervous about global warming conducted a survey of Arizona residents and discovered three-fourths of them are nervous about global…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

Vote For Transhumanist Zoltan Istvan For President: It’s The Intelligent Thing To Do

I normally don't vote in presidential elections because the choices are between flavors of progressivism---D-type, R-type, etc.---and I desire none. But scrappy "transhumanist" Zoltan Istvan has changed my mind. He…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Knows All At Same Instant

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. God is…
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Posted inCulture

This Week In Doom: Grade Deflation

This week's doom: "higher" education, art, and sex. Racism's return It may be time to rethink the idea of academic freedom. Seems this professor blurted out a series of racist…
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  1. tfc on Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: SkillMay 1, 2026

    Wow. Americans say the Soviet Union was a huge success.

  2. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  3. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  4. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  5. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

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