William M. Briggs

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Culture

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. So…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Goodness Of God

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. We've had…

Fun

First Computers, Radios & The Death Of Radio Shack

There it is. The TRS-80 Model I---with cassette storage! Z-80 microprocessor; over 4000 bytes of user memory, a.k.a. RAM, which---I shudder to write it---is well over 30,000 bits! I can't…

Philosophy

Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No

The ever hopeful transhumanist-but-still-human Zoltan Istvan is back asking "When Superintelligent AI Arrives, Will Religions Try to Convert It?" The answer is a qualified no. The qualification? There won't be…

Briggs on What A WinterJanuary 21, 2026
McChuck, That lieutenant must be at least a congressman by now.
McChuck on What A WinterJanuary 21, 2026
I remember the multiple blizzards of the 1970's. I had to be outside on guard patrol all night in -40…
Cary D Cotterman on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
There's always something busting on a house or a car, and mean weather doesn't help. The joy of home and…
shawn marshall on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
c'mon global warming!
Chad W Jessup on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Wish some of that snow would come west, as it looks like La Niña is not helping out here. Repairing…

William M. Briggs

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails

Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Merry Christmas!

Complete List Of All Moral & Ethical Questions Answered By Science

Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With Russia

Climate Models

Is Powerball A “Fair Game”?

No Class: But Here’s Some Homework

On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble Reviewed

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Goodness Of God

First Computers, Radios & The Death Of Radio Shack

Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification