William M. Briggs

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Culture

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows. So…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Statistics

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

A reader writes: I am a fairly new reader of your blog, coming from WattsUpWithThat and reading with delight and frustration your thoughts on statistics and climate. I have a…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Goodness Of God

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. We've had…

Fun

First Computers, Radios & The Death Of Radio Shack

There it is. The TRS-80 Model I---with cassette storage! Z-80 microprocessor; over 4000 bytes of user memory, a.k.a. RAM, which---I shudder to write it---is well over 30,000 bits! I can't…

Philosophy

Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No

The ever hopeful transhumanist-but-still-human Zoltan Istvan is back asking "When Superintelligent AI Arrives, Will Religions Try to Convert It?" The answer is a qualified no. The qualification? There won't be…

Cary Cotterman on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026
Perhaps slave traders found low-intelligence blacks easier to capture, resulting in an intellectually challenged population of blacks in the U.S.…
Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026
Where do homicide rates fit in?
McChuck on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 20, 2026
I am morally certain that murdering innocent children for fun and profit is evil. There. That was easy.
JohnK on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 19, 2026
For me, 'moral certainty' is a category error. Such talk has to be refused, not engaged. One example. The New…
Alistair on We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) ResearchAugust 19, 2026
Google Scholar's result counts are extremely broad estimates and highly opaque. It's not a reliable or reproducible method assessing topical…

William M. Briggs

Bad Black Health Blamed On Slavery

Is Moral Certainty Possible?

We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) Research

Sweet Wee Ps Say Sugar Makes You Lose Your Mind

AI Is Neither Artificial Nor Intelligent

You Can’t Con An Honest Man & The Case of Jason Arday

Academics: Achieve Sustainability by Easing Population to 4 Billion by 2200

The Impossibility of Proposition Nations

Ugly Women Rulers Condemn Lookism

The Wee P Boogie: The Song That’s Sweeping the Nation!

Wolfgang Smith For Everyone

Death By Organ Donation

$7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?

Caution Against The Precautionary Principle: Interview with Jaap Hanekamp

Believing In God Makes You Crave Potato Chips, Say Academics

Hume’s Guillotine, Euclid’s Catapult: Induction, Axioms, and Objective Ethics

University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEing

The Equality Paradox

My Horrible Interaction With AI

SOON

The Court’s Slow Theft Of The Constitution — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Bad Black Health Blamed On Slavery

Is Moral Certainty Possible?

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

What Might Pope Francis’s Upcoming Encyclical Look Like?

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Temperature Grids, Interpolation, And Over-Certainty

Summary Against Modern Thought: The Goodness Of God

First Computers, Radios & The Death Of Radio Shack

Question Of The Week: Will Religions Try to Convert Superintelligent AI? No

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification