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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Posted by By Briggs May 4, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Posted by By Briggs April 30, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

On The Attribution Of A Single Event To Climate Change

Rained yesterday here in the city of cities. Must be because of climate change, right? Hey. The climate did change and it did rain. What more evidence do you want?…
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Posted inCulture

Columbia Law School Kiddies ‘Traumatized’, Exams Postponed: Update Harvard Joins

There's a story in John Toland's magisterial The Rising Sun: The Decline and Fall of the Japanese Empire (volume two) which depicts a Japanese ship transporting Western prisoners in conditions…
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Posted inStatistics

The Philosophy Of Rock Paper Scissors

Way my dad and I used to play is that when somebody won they got to grab the hand of the loser and then, with the fore- and middle-fingers only,…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Terms Which Can Be Predicated Of God

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. Today some…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Infinite Surprise And Impossible Events

It's a lazy Saturday, so some musings today on entropy and information and probability. It's about time we started tying these things together. Things like the following are heard: "Given…
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Posted inStatistics

Uncertainty Is An Impossible Sell

I've never seen the show, but I've heard that the protagonist on the X Files used to have a desk sign which read, "I want to believe." That sentiment characterizes…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: II

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Reviewed

People first Just in time for the Federally-Recognized-Holiday-Of-25-December-That-Shall-Go-Unnamed we have a suitable gift for science deniers everywhere. Alex Epstein's The Moral Case For Fossil Fuels Science deniers? Yes, sir. Those…
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  1. C-Marie on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    Sooo sad about Richard Dawkins. I just prayed for Holy Spirit revelation of Jesus Christ to him. Here is hoping…

  2. Rudolph Harrier on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    I once had an old freezer and I wasn't sure if it was working properly. Since at the time I…

  3. John Pate on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 5, 2026

    Dawkins is leaning in to the idea that we've defined consciousness as what we are seeing the AI chatbots produce.…

  4. Phileas Frogg on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerMay 5, 2026

    Push the Red button then order my entire family to do the same, because we are not obligated to risk…

  5. Johnno on Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI PachinkoMay 4, 2026

    This is your brain on the Theory of Evolution. Atheists should be restricted from any and all influential positions within…

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