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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves
May 18, 2026
Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples
May 14, 2026
The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!
May 13, 2026
The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?
May 12, 2026
Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty
May 11, 2026
How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power
May 6, 2026
Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko
May 4, 2026
Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
April 30, 2026
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Posted inStatistics

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Posted by By Briggs May 18, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

Posted by By Briggs May 14, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inFun

What Should Artists Do About Global Warming Contest

Picture shows artist Sarah Cameron Sunde, who stood in San Francisco Bay on Friday Aug. 15, 2014, "for a full cycle of tides, a more-than 13-hour process." A more than…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Philosophic Issues in Cosmology VI: Anthropic Coincidences—Guest Post by Bob Kurland

Bob Kurland is a retired, cranky, old physicist, and convert to Catholicism. He shows that there is no contradiction between what science tells us about the world and our Catholic…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: God Is Not Made Of Matter

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. All posts are under the category SAMT. Previous post. A relatively…
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Posted inStatistics

Ask A Scientific Ethicist: Baby Making, Auto Mishap, ISIS Attacks

This was supposed to run this morning. No idea why it didn't. This week, three letters from concerned readers. Too many babies Dear Scientific Ethicist, Hopefully this subject matter isn't…
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Posted inStatistics

It Makes No Sense To Say You’re More Likely To Die Of Bee Sting Than Shark Bite

The National Journal says: "The odds of being killed by a shark are about 1 in 3.7 million. The odds of being killed by a sting from a bee, wasp,…
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Posted inStatistics

Decline Of Participation In Religious Rituals With Improved Sanitation

Answer me this. Earl at the end of the bar, on his sixth or seventh, tells listeners just what's wrong with America's science policy. His words receive knowing nods from…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability

Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
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  1. Cary D Cotterman on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026

    I just read an article based on "studies" that attempted to panic me about the potential deadliness of down-filled pillows…

  2. Brian (bulaoren) on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026

    Threat avoidance seems pretty instinctual. Threat awareness, on the other hand, depends upon the scope of information before us. Sadly,…

  3. Tars Tarkas on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026

    "What are these airy indefinite words? Propaganda, that’s what." Propaganda is the default setting for the English language press. Most…

  4. Tony Cooke on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026

    The description of the possible transfer of the Hanta virus reminded me of the woman who sang "I danced with…

  5. The Errors of Mr. Coffin on the PP signature and Apostolic Blessings – Roma Locuta Est on Munus, Ministerium & Pope Emeritus Benedict — Guest Post by Fr John RickertMay 16, 2026

    […] However, for the record I will note that myself and others (e.g., Ryan Grant, and Fr. John Rickert, HERE…

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