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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
April 29, 2026
UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
April 27, 2026
Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
April 23, 2026
Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
April 22, 2026
What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
April 20, 2026
Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
April 16, 2026
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
April 15, 2026
Contest Winner Announced!
April 14, 2026
Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt
April 13, 2026
Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness
April 9, 2026
Proof!
April 8, 2026
Justice Ketanji Roars
April 7, 2026
Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War
April 6, 2026
Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness
April 2, 2026
There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men
March 31, 2026
Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?
March 30, 2026
All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model
March 26, 2026
It’s The End Of The World Again
March 24, 2026
Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People
March 23, 2026
Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?
March 19, 2026
The Great Effeminization of the Academy
March 18, 2026
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

Posted by By Briggs April 29, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Posted by By Briggs April 27, 2026
Continue Reading
Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets
Posted inStatistics

Reasons Not To Like Prediction Markets

Note: I wrote this on Saturday morning before the events of Sunday hilariously vindicated the conclusions below. My point was to illustrate how bets are not probabilities, though they do…
Read More
Class 14: No “UNfair” Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!
Posted inStatistics

Class 14: No “UNfair” Dice & 1, 2, 3, Many!

Link to all Classes. Video Announcement: In order to preserve sanity, I am not going to include any technical proofs in the Video lectures from now on. As important, indeed…
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Covid Is The Boogerman of Maladies: Now It Causes Cognitive Confusion Claim Researchers
Posted inStatistics

Covid Is The Boogerman of Maladies: Now It Causes Cognitive Confusion Claim Researchers

So these researchers said the worse infection of covid you had the more you now act like our dear President: In a multiple regression analysis, participants who had recovered from…
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The Enlightenment Was The Beginning Of The Great Leveling: Stove 2
Posted inStatistics

The Enlightenment Was The Beginning Of The Great Leveling: Stove 2

We continue our series on the works of David Stove by picking up where we left off with the first essay in On Enlightenment. Part I here. It will be…
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Lesson 13: No “Fair” Dice & Jaynes Symmetry
Posted inStatistics

Lesson 13: No “Fair” Dice & Jaynes Symmetry

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Video Links: YouTube Twitter Rumble Bitchute (often a day or so behind, for whatever reason) The Infamous Coin Flipping Machine! Link to…
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Arrest All Stochastic Terrorists In Trump Assassination Attempt & Civilian Murder & Shootings
Posted inStatistics

Arrest All Stochastic Terrorists In Trump Assassination Attempt & Civilian Murder & Shootings

Class will be delayed one day, until tomorrow. Academics at universities, which are the best kind of academics, invented the idea of stochastic terrorism. According to academic James Angove (who…
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Academics Have Contest To See How Many Times They Can Say ‘Racist’ In An Article: An IQ Story
Posted inStatistics

Academics Have Contest To See How Many Times They Can Say ‘Racist’ In An Article: An IQ Story

His name wasn't the first given, nor even the second. But it did appear. There was a special sense of anticipation waiting for his name to come. For you knew…
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Jon Stewart Proves Democracies Are Undesirable
Posted inStatistics

Jon Stewart Proves Democracies Are Undesirable

Regime court jester Jon Stewart used his stock "aghast" gimmick (which, you will know, is a low play on emotion) to instruct his audience that Biden's senility was "new information"…
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  1. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  2. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I think that pessimism morphs into cynicism when we perceive personal gain in our bleak expectations.

  4. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    The best explanation I saw on twitter was this rephrasing: "There is a blender. Jumping into the blender will kill…

  5. Nate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    I rephrased the question to remove "red" and "blue" priming words and asked the wife: "Space aliens create two buttons,…

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