William M. Briggs

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Philosophy Statistics

Scientists Discover Way To Increase Publication Count

Anybody who has spent any time in a university library amidst the papers of his specialty knows that the absolute last thing which is needed is more of them. Journals…

Statistics

Krauthammer’s Wrong: NSA Spying Not Equivalent To Policing

Charles Krauthammer ought to be taken seriously. He said yesterday from his daily perch that he wasn't concerned about NSA spying on Americans because there hasn't been any or many…

Culture Statistics

You Do Too Have Something To Hide

"Let them look at my phone records. I have nothing to hide. They can read all my emails. There's nothing there worth reading." We hear this primarily from the young,…

Cary D Cotterman on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
I just read an article based on "studies" that attempted to panic me about the potential deadliness of down-filled pillows…
Brian (bulaoren) on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
Threat avoidance seems pretty instinctual. Threat awareness, on the other hand, depends upon the scope of information before us. Sadly,…
Tars Tarkas on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
"What are these airy indefinite words? Propaganda, that’s what." Propaganda is the default setting for the English language press. Most…
Tony Cooke on Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize OurselvesMay 18, 2026
The description of the possible transfer of the Hanta virus reminded me of the woman who sang "I danced with…
The Errors of Mr. Coffin on the PP signature and Apostolic Blessings – Roma Locuta Est on Munus, Ministerium & Pope Emeritus Benedict — Guest Post by Fr John RickertMay 16, 2026
[…] However, for the record I will note that myself and others (e.g., Ryan Grant, and Fr. John Rickert, HERE…

William M. Briggs

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Creating Microbial Monsters To Terrorize Ourselves

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Scientists Discover Way To Increase Publication Count

Krauthammer’s Wrong: NSA Spying Not Equivalent To Policing

You Do Too Have Something To Hide

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification