William M. Briggs

Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation

Update Now with new and improved title! (Title writing is a talent which your humble author possesses not.) In the classic 1978 documentary Attack of the Killer Tomatoes! we watch…

Statistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…

Culture

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…

Statistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…

Philosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…

Culture

Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco

The strangest thing about yesterday's Stand Up For Religious Freedom rally in San Francisco were the "undecided" gentlemen who came dressed with brassieres on their heads. This was curious because…

Book review Philosophy

Top 10 Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List

Today, a classic column. Original appearance 5 June 2011. A list of (non-fiction) books concerning knowledge, and the limits of certainty, about man's relations to other men. The Federalist Papers…

Culture

University’s Non-Discrimination Clause

I've been looking at university positions and typical is this fine print from the University of San Francisco (which used to be Catholic): The University of San Francisco is an…

Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.
spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025
If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…
JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025
How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.
Jonas P. Kay on Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part IJune 28, 2025
I answer all by saying you cannot get something from nothing. There is beauty in its simplicity and it is…
Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025
So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…

William M. Briggs

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco

Top 10 Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List

University’s Non-Discrimination Clause

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification