William M. Briggs

The Dismal Removing Freedoms Saves Money Argument

Here is an example of an argument which you will hear with increasing frequency. A month or so ago on the Fox News Special Report panel the participants were discussing…

Culture Philosophy

A Christmas Play In One Act

This post originally ran two years ago. Then current events inspired the post; events haven't changed much since then. Scene: Night Court, Manhattan; a date in the near future. Players:…

Statistics

Shocking New Study: Males Play More Sports Than Non-Males

The peer-reviewed paper "A Sex Difference in the Predisposition for Physical Competition: Males Play Sports Much More than Females Even in the Contemporary U.S" by Robert O. Deaner and a…

Philosophy Statistics

In Defense Of Peter Kreeft: A Response To Brafford

Peter Kreeft, a philosopher whose surname does not sound like it is spelled, placed in Touchstone the article "Clashing Symbols: The Loss of Aristotelian Logic & the Social, Moral, &…

Statistics

Do Heat Waves Cause Birth Defects?

What would you name a paper which purports to discover that heat waves stress pregnant women and thus cause birth defects but which never once measures the actual exposure of…

Culture Statistics

No Religion Is Third-Largest World Group: Or, How Inaccurate Are Surveys On Religious Belief?

The actual headline at Reuters was "No religion" is the third-largest world group after Christians, Muslim, but my expurgated version is close enough. It's also similar to many of the…

Fun

The Hobbit Reviewed—Guest Post by John Henry Briggs

The Hobbit was quite good, but disappointing. One of the biggest flaws in Lord of the Rings was the endless video game-like orc slaughter that was gratuitous at best and…

Philosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…

Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
@Cary Motorcycle accident? No, that was due to covid.
Cary D Cotterman on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
In the mid '70s I was the janitor at Cal Tech's Kerkhoff Marine Laboratory, where they studied the effects of…
Brian (bulaoren) on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
I'm waiting for members of the California Coastal Commission to start disappearing.
Bill Hankel on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
Thank you for your application of common sense (and math!) to this issue. I have never been a conspiracy theorist,…
Lucy Tucker on What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?April 20, 2026
You’re the best?????

William M. Briggs

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?

All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A Model

It’s The End Of The World Again

Belgian Judge Wants To Arrest Little Nate Cofnast Because Cofnast Says Smart People Are Smarter Than Dumb People

Class 83: Why Were Paul Ehrlich’s Predictions So Good (and so Bad)?

The Great Effeminization of the Academy

The Only Metric That Matters: Or, Pinker’s Folly

Lancet Discovers Public Health Is Politics

Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)

On Not Reading