William M. Briggs

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

hudbwu on Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970sNovember 7, 2025
I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…
Northbrae on Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For VictimsNovember 7, 2025
Cheers from Florida, land of the ugly beasts known as womanatees. Meritocracy is now Ancient Herstory. Sheesh.
RANDOM TIDS & BITS- Thu 3/20/24- – WAXX on The Sports Illustrated curse and regression to the meanNovember 6, 2025
[…] Illustrated” once determined that their cover is a JINX 37% of the time. So about two out of every five…
Uncle Mike on Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To DataNovember 6, 2025
Homework discussion re Utts: It may be useful to note that syncretic hermeticism begins with the Egyptian god Thoth who…
Hagfish Bagpipe on Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For VictimsNovember 5, 2025
"Consider this article one man addressing it." And doing such a fine job that none of your adversaries dare address…

William M. Briggs

Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To Data

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

Little Nate’s Plan To Save The World

Compact for Academic Excellence in Higher Education Causes Mass Squealing

Stay The Course: Have Some Class

Last Call For Alcohol-Cancer Papers

UFO Hits United Flight. All Survive. This Time!

Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970s

Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right Way

The Triumph Of The Feminine

At What Point Does Transsexualism Become A Conservative Value?

The Superpower You Didn’t Know You Had

Class 69: Why Parameters Don’t Exist

Putin, Xi Who Must Obeyed, Occult Rituals & Living Forever

Nobody Believes Anything Based On “No Evidence”

Good Vs Bad Science (Models) & How You Can Tell The Difference: Think Twice Science

Class 68: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The WRONG Way

The Lancet’s New Push To Ban Meat

‘Termination Shock’: Newest Entry In Science Doom Naming Contest

Changing Clocks In Fall Will Stroke You Out, Fatty: Research

Class 67: The Philosophy Of Models (Regression): The Right Way

Class 71: Never Trust ‘Research Shows’ Headlines: We Bring Cause To Data

Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For Victims

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification