William M. Briggs

Bioengineering Humans To Combat Climate Change

Aren't bioethicists a fun bunch? When last we met this speculative crew, they were wondering whether we should "let baby live", and they were developing a pill to eliminate racism.…

Culture

My Failure To Purchase Something In The Market Subjects Me To Regulation

The title words were spoken to Solicitor General Verrilli by Justice Scalia in yesterday's oral arguments. Scalia was making the obvious point that because he might not buy a thing…

Book review Philosophy

The Universe Created From Nothing Says Lawrence Krauss

This fragment of conversation was reported to me by a reliable witness. It occurred between a gentlemen we will call "Daffy" and Lawrence M. Krauss upon the occasion of the…

Culture

Supreme Court To Check The Doctrine Of Unintended Consequences?

This country, like all other countries, has at times lost its mind. But this country, again like all others, since it is constituted differently than the others, goes insane in…

Culture

Why You Don’t Want Free Health Care: Supreme Court Hears Arguments On Obamacare

Our reading today is from the Constitution, first Act, eighth Section, third Clause: [The Congress shall have Power] To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist

In his shockingly neglected, A Treatise on Probability John Maynard Keynes put his finger on the difficulty people have with probability, particularly Bayes's Theorem: No other formula in the alchemy…

Culture Philosophy

Experts Say People Aren’t Smart Enough

Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen said recently, "The first lesson you learn as a pollster is that people are stupid." Jensen represents a common attitude among media denizens that ordinary…

Fun Statistics

Global Warming Feedback Confirmed!

Just some gentle teasing today. Every climate scientist knows that it's the feedback that counts, that the few squirts of carbon dioxide contributed to the atmosphere are powerless in isolation.…

Briggs on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Paul, You're right. It sucked. I'm redoing. JH, Very well. Construct for us a model that does not do what…
Paul murphy on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Ok, maybe I need more coffee but I found that very confusing - too much I think that you think…
JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
The mathematical result from the Di Finetti's 0-1 Representation Theorem discussed here tells us, under the assumption of exchangeability (which…
spudjr60 on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025
Well, it is a good thing, that I know beyond any doubt that all conspiracy theories are false. And, I…
hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025
I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…

William M. Briggs

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food

What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?

Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance

The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic

Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp

Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease

Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Bioengineering Humans To Combat Climate Change

My Failure To Purchase Something In The Market Subjects Me To Regulation

The Universe Created From Nothing Says Lawrence Krauss

Supreme Court To Check The Doctrine Of Unintended Consequences?

Why You Don’t Want Free Health Care: Supreme Court Hears Arguments On Obamacare

Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist

Experts Say People Aren’t Smart Enough

Global Warming Feedback Confirmed!

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification