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What A Winter
January 20, 2026
FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability
January 19, 2026
Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!
January 15, 2026
AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)
January 14, 2026
Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting
January 13, 2026
Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money
January 12, 2026
Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series
January 8, 2026
The Consent Fallacy
January 7, 2026
On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs
January 6, 2026
Register Your Predictions For 2026!
January 5, 2026
Happy New Year!
January 1, 2026
How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?
December 31, 2025
Why The Drake Equation Fails
December 30, 2025
Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings
December 29, 2025
Merry Christmas!
December 25, 2025
Complete List Of All Moral & Ethical Questions Answered By Science
December 24, 2025
Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With Russia
December 23, 2025
Climate Models
December 22, 2025
Is Powerball A “Fair Game”?
December 20, 2025
No Class: But Here’s Some Homework
December 18, 2025
On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble Reviewed
December 16, 2025
Posted inStatistics

What A Winter

Posted by By Briggs January 20, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Posted by By Briggs January 19, 2026
Continue Reading
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…
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Posted inStatistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…
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  1. shawn marshall on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026

    c'mon global warming!

  2. Chad W Jessup on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026

    Wish some of that snow would come west, as it looks like La Niña is not helping out here. Repairing…

  3. Brian (bulaoren) on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026

    Dr. Briggs I reckon you can be forgiven for today's little screed; That weather sounds pretty nasty. My only experience…

  4. Lucy Tucker on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026

    Yikes, Sarge, hang in there!

  5. Rich on FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone ProbabilityJanuary 20, 2026

    "this, this and this" should probably be links...

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January 2026
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