William M. Briggs

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Statistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…

Philosophy

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

President Obama has told us, and we can scarcely disbelieve him, that he is a Christian. At a recent prayer breakfast, Mr Obama said: [The prayer breakfast is] a chance…

Culture Philosophy

Why There’s No Point To Arguing About Abortion

I lifted that title, word for word, from (atheist, self-admitted man-of-the-left, City College emeritus Professor of Sociology) Steven Goldberg's article of the same name from his must-read Fads and Fallacies…

Culture Philosophy

American Atheist Association Modifies Lawsuit Against WTC 9/11 Museum

Those of you living in or around New York City might remember that the American Atheists Association was displeased that two iron girders had formed themselves serendipitously into the shape…

Statistics

Heartlandgate Versus Climategate

There are some key differences between Climategate 1.0 and 2.0, where emails from scientists and their hangers on were leaked, and Heartlandgate (am I the first to use this appallingly…

Philosophy

Morality Can’t Be Decided By Vote

These are all old arguments, but since Mr Obama has put us in the mood over the birth control controversy, it is best to revisit them. The dominant thinking is…

Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…
JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…
Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025
What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…
Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…
Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

William M. Briggs

Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models

Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?

Reproducibility Crises Will Be Forever With Us Until We Abandon Classical Statistics

AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor Lie

Class 48: What Is A Model?

I’m Going To Sue Scientists Who Gave Me Apoplexy Over Claims Of Climate Liability

Researchers Tell Models To Say People Will Die Without Your Money

The Sun Made To Set On The British Empire – Via Science!

Class 47: Billions Of Models!

A New Physics Arises: Irreducible by Federico Faggin Reviewed

Let Go Your Wee P! — Reader Help Requested

Class 46: Explanation & Abductive Weakness

The Educational Empire Strikes Back

Can Jinn & The Evil Eye Cause Disease?

Science: The Bigger The Hole In The Head, The More Politically Active

Class 45: The False Hope Of Falsification

New Paper Says Flu Vax Increases Chance Of Flu: Let’s Look

A Simple Argument Proving You Must Not Trust Standard Scientific Evidence

Power Restored, Posts To Resume

No posts, class. No power, no internet

MIT Scientists Trying To Invent Zombies