William M. Briggs

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

Culture

Rioting Is An Ecstatic, Spiritual Experience: Or, Structural Sin Made Me Do It

"Rioting"---which is to say, looting, rampaging, vandalizing, engaging in wanton mayhem and violence, and generally acting very badly---"can be, literally, an ecstatic spiritual experience." So says the is-he Right Reverend…

Culture Fun

A Depressing [Real Sad] Churchill Quotation—Contest

As I this morning scanned Facebook, I ran across the image below. Read it through and pause for a moment before continuing. Notice anything strange? I was so intrigued by…

Statistics

Does Averaging Incorrect Data Give A Result That Is Less Incorrect? Climate Modeling

Another question from the statistics mailbag: Dear Matt: I recently got into a discussion with a CAGW "believer" and of course the discussion turned to global average temperature (whatever that…

Brian. (bulaoren) on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
A lot of Americans have come to suspect that the "dumbing down" of the population is a real, and deliberate…
Heresolong on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
I can't but I don't understand most of the abbreviations. I look forward to your analysis.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
addendum; As I think back, that was probably the 1976 Dem. primary.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
While butting heads with Ted Kennedy, over the 1980 Democratic presidential primary, John Connally said something like; "At least I…
McChuck on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
Everybody remembers the Nazi book burning. The Left won't shut up about it. Almost nobody talks about what books were…

William M. Briggs

Class 78: The Attempt To Turn Correlation Lead Into Causation Gold In Time Series

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

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