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Latest Articles
The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example
June 16, 2025
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?
May 21, 2025
A Reason The Birthrate Is So Low: Food
May 20, 2025
What Are The Chances…A Women Survives Cancer 4 Times To Be Killed By “Random” Bullet?
May 19, 2025
Class 50: Independence Versus Irrelevance
May 15, 2025
The Nuances and Challenges of Federal Funding for Research — Guest Post by An Academic
May 14, 2025
Eggs and ‘PFAS-Easter’ or Selling Fear on the Day of Resurrection — Guest Post by Jaap Hanekamp
May 13, 2025
Academics Call Pregnancy A Disease
May 12, 2025
Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In Models
May 8, 2025
Posted inStatistics

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Posted by By Briggs June 16, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Posted by By Briggs June 12, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inFun

Mathematical Magic Trick: 8 4-Digit Numbers Summing To 35712?

From reader Noble Abraham comes this question: Is it possible to create a pool of distinct four digit numbers, so that the sum of 8 randomly chosen numbers from this…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

The Obama-HHS Diktat On Contraceptive Coverage: Non-Religious Arguments Against It

The government has decided that citizens who agree to work for other citizens must be given "free" coverage for contraceptives and drugs for auto-abortions. The "free" is a misnomer. Actually,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part V

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We started by assuming each X was measured without error, that each observation was perfectly certain. This is not always so for real X.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part IV

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part III

Part I, II, III, IV, V. The objection which will occur to those, Lord help them, who have had some statistical training is that "increased" means a combination of "linear…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part II

Part I, II, III, IV, V. Before us are the observations X1 to X156. Recall we are assuming that each of these X has been measured without any error. Given…
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Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I
Posted inStatistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I

This series originally began 5 February 2012. Part I, II, III, IV, V. We've gone on and on about how to think about time series, but we are having trouble…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On Corrections In Science

Somebody attributed to Max Planck, a constant1 source of wisdom, the saying that science advances funeral by funeral. This is a pithy condensation of his more famous quotation: A new…
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  1. Paul murphy on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    Ok, maybe I need more coffee but I found that very confusing - too much I think that you think…

  2. JH on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    The mathematical result from the Di Finetti's 0-1 Representation Theorem discussed here tells us, under the assumption of exchangeability (which…

  3. spudjr60 on The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club ExampleJune 16, 2025

    Well, it is a good thing, that I know beyond any doubt that all conspiracy theories are false. And, I…

  4. hudbwu on Over-Certainty Of Polygenic ScoresJune 11, 2025

    I stopped midway to write this comment. What exactly is the difference between polygenic scores and two-layer neural networks? Other…

  5. NLR on AI & The Dilemma Of TechnologyJune 11, 2025

    It's not just that the effects of technology are complex, it's that there's no guarantee that the results will fit…

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