William M. Briggs

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…

Fun Statistics

Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?

Today's post is over at the new and, yes, improved Edgehogs.com. Our launch was a couple of months ago. Since that time we've got a good chunk of games and…

Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Phil R on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025
I'm neither a mathematician or a statistician, although I have a degree in science (geology) and regularly work with numbers…
The True Nolan on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025
"Political science" comes to mind as an illustrative fraud. After decades of watching, I think the entire field can be…
Dan D. on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025
It all started with that sloped forehead, Bill Nye. He diffused science into a maelstrom of wackiness. Now we have…
Ralph Mertesdorf on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025
Bad science is only a symptom of the stupidity (much of it willful) of the masses. Treat symptoms not causes.…
Zundfolge on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025
Social constructionism. Almost as obviously BS as man caused, catastrophic climate change.

William M. Briggs

Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep Apnea

What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s Study

The Unseen Bias In All Science

The Sad End Of Radio

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!

Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?

Class 57: The Second Best Model

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification