William M. Briggs

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

Read Part I, Part II. The text has again been expanded and corrected. We have our model in hand. "Has the ability", our model, says (see Part II) that the…

Philosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

Read Part I: Again, the text (up to this part) has been corrected and expanded. Recall our overarching---our only---goal. We want to know whether the sweet old lady "has the…

Philosophy Statistics

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Since the subject arose yesterday, and for other reasons which I'll explain later, I thought we should revisit this series, which ran a year ago. I have edited and expanded…

Statistics

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…

Philosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…

Philosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…

Culture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Cary D Cotterman on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
There's always something busting on a house or a car, and mean weather doesn't help. The joy of home and…
shawn marshall on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
c'mon global warming!
Chad W Jessup on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Wish some of that snow would come west, as it looks like La Niña is not helping out here. Repairing…
Brian (bulaoren) on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Dr. Briggs I reckon you can be forgiven for today's little screed; That weather sounds pretty nasty. My only experience…
Lucy Tucker on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
Yikes, Sarge, hang in there!

William M. Briggs

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!

How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

Why The Drake Equation Fails

Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor Killings

Merry Christmas!

Complete List Of All Moral & Ethical Questions Answered By Science

Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With Russia

Climate Models

Is Powerball A “Fair Game”?

No Class: But Here’s Some Homework

On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble Reviewed

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part III (update)

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part II (update)

The Lady Tasting Tea: Bayes Versus Frequentism; Part I (updated)

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification