William M. Briggs

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Statistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…

Philosophy

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

President Obama has told us, and we can scarcely disbelieve him, that he is a Christian. At a recent prayer breakfast, Mr Obama said: [The prayer breakfast is] a chance…

Culture Philosophy

Why There’s No Point To Arguing About Abortion

I lifted that title, word for word, from (atheist, self-admitted man-of-the-left, City College emeritus Professor of Sociology) Steven Goldberg's article of the same name from his must-read Fads and Fallacies…

Culture Philosophy

American Atheist Association Modifies Lawsuit Against WTC 9/11 Museum

Those of you living in or around New York City might remember that the American Atheists Association was displeased that two iron girders had formed themselves serendipitously into the shape…

Statistics

Heartlandgate Versus Climategate

There are some key differences between Climategate 1.0 and 2.0, where emails from scientists and their hangers on were leaked, and Heartlandgate (am I the first to use this appallingly…

Brian. (bulaoren) on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
A lot of Americans have come to suspect that the "dumbing down" of the population is a real, and deliberate…
Heresolong on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
I can't but I don't understand most of the abbreviations. I look forward to your analysis.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
addendum; As I think back, that was probably the 1976 Dem. primary.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
While butting heads with Ted Kennedy, over the 1980 Democratic presidential primary, John Connally said something like; "At least I…
McChuck on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
Everybody remembers the Nazi book burning. The Left won't shut up about it. Almost nobody talks about what books were…

William M. Briggs

Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam Performance

Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender Delusions

Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGI

Polar Bears Are Doing Fine: Activists, Not So Well

Impossible LSAT Statistics Question

How Women’s Equality In Democracies Changes Voting (And Everything Else)

Class 77: Trendy Trends In Time Series

Who Still Listens To AM Radio?

Scientists Invent New Name For Models: Digital Twins

What Science Says About Making Medication Mandatory

What A Winter

FDA Goes Bayes: It Should Have Gone Probability

Class 76: That’s Not Noise. That’s Signal!

AI: The Earth Is Spinning Faster & Slower (Because “Climate Change”)

Confirmation Bias In The Minneapolis Shooting

Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose Money

Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time Series

The Consent Fallacy

On Laws Banning Hacking Women’s Genitals & Imposing Beliefs

Register Your Predictions For 2026!

Happy New Year!