William M. Briggs

Are Humans As Violent As In The Good Old Days?

If we had records of massacres as we have meteorological records, don't you think we might discover their internal laws, after several centuries of observation? --- Joseph de Maistre. There…

Book review

America’s Security and Taiwan’s Freedom — Guest Post by June Teufel Dreyer

We return to a topic which is of more importance than you want it to be: the possibility of Chinese belligerence. June Teufel Dreyer is a political science professor at…

Statistics

New Paper Shows Statistical Errors At 50% to 100% In Peer-Reviewed Neuroscience Journals

The error is often reported like this: "The percentage of neurons showing cue-related activity increased with training in mutant mice (P < 0.05), but not in control mice (P >…

Statistics

EPA To Unleash Quarter Million New, CO₂ Sniffing Bureaucrats, Cost $21 Billion

Are you talented and energetic? Come help us protect the environment! Every day is Earth Day at EPA! Join us in protecting the environment! Our diverse workforce connects to more…

Culture Statistics

The Environmentalist Fallacy Causing Global Warming Divide To Grow

A headline lifted from an MS-"Bias free"-NBC story: "Americans' divide over global warming getting deeper" (linked on HotAir). Subtitle: "Despite onslaught of science, resistance to the idea seems to be…

Statistics

Statistical Results Associated With Increased Risk Of Exaggerating Risk

Our title, which is indistinguishable from a flood of others1, might read, "Reading Articles About The Misuse Of Statistics Increases Risk Of Apoplexy." Yes, for every article you read like…

Philosophy Statistics

The EPA, Dust, And The Ecological Fallacy

In last night's Republican debate, the candidates were asked if they could eliminate just one federal agency, which one would it be? Herman Cain chose the EPA: The first --…

Fun

Reducing Your Dog’s Carbon Paw Print?

Your author's delta-D---the change in the rate at which he is dying---has gone positive today. Luckily, he has a long flight while squeezed into a seat made for a jockey…

John Pate on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 14, 2026
You haven't given any information the beast sizes of the women involved, this being an important factor (as demonstrated by…
JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026
Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…
McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026
There is a simpler, less math-intensive solution that gives the same answer. Knowing that it doesn't take two men to…
R W Pearson on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
This is easy, go in the door he came out. Worse case only one young scold to give you a…
Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…

William M. Briggs

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

Class 89: The Measure Most Modelers Forget: Skill Examples

The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!

Are Humans As Violent As In The Good Old Days?

America’s Security and Taiwan’s Freedom — Guest Post by June Teufel Dreyer

New Paper Shows Statistical Errors At 50% to 100% In Peer-Reviewed Neuroscience Journals

EPA To Unleash Quarter Million New, CO₂ Sniffing Bureaucrats, Cost $21 Billion

The Environmentalist Fallacy Causing Global Warming Divide To Grow

Statistical Results Associated With Increased Risk Of Exaggerating Risk

The EPA, Dust, And The Ecological Fallacy

Reducing Your Dog’s Carbon Paw Print?

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification